Our Managing Director, Helena Beard, recently joined a webinar hosted by The PIE addressing the subject “The UK pivot: The United States and international student enrolments”; a discussion about whether the concerns about a huge drop in international student enrolment into US universities are real, and whether the UK is going to be the main beneficiary.
Here are the main points summarised as found in relation to the Chinese international student market. Please note: there was also a lot of discussion about India and a small amount of this is mentioned here.
Is the reported pivot from USA to the UK real?
The pivot away from the USA is real. 2025 enrolments into American universities are falling dramatically and there is a forecast crash of around 75% in 2026.
It is not just the UK which will benefit. There are also record international enrolments being recorded for other countries. Spain, Germany, Ireland, Japan were cited. South East Asian universities are not considered to be as good, with the exception of Singapore.
Other factors at play
- Which country can absorb the high numbers wanting to come?
- Is there someone in the student’s family already living there?
- How long is the course? (In the UK, Masters are one year vs US Masters two years)
- Will the student be welcome and is the destination considered safe?
- Are policies flexible and stable?
The UK scores well on all the above metrics. The UK has very flexible deadlines. The Duolingo English Test also delivers results within 24 hours. You can enrol in either September or January. All these work elements in the UK’s favour.
Importantly, the UK is portrayed as a safe destination with a convenient lifestyle and good food and living choices on social media, but there is always more that can be done about ‘welcome’. Course reputations and ranking are still essential, but the emotional component to studying abroad has become more important than it was. Why should parents send their kids so far away, spending so much money, leaving their friends and family behind? Cities wanting to attract Chinese students need to be on RedNote showing the students and their parents what life is like in the city outside the university, and what kind of place they will be living in, what else there is to do, what the local people are like etc. This is where tourism and education can really cross over for the mutual benefit of the destination.
The UK also has a generous post-graduation visa policy which allows students to stay on for 2 years. (Unfortunately, the white paper proposing a reduction to 18 months has been reported on social media as being a policy change, even though it has not been agreed.)
What is the difference between studying in the USA and the UK?
The USA has a big soft power draw of Hollywood, tech and the Ivy League. The UK offers history, academic excellence, Oxford & Cambridge, and prestige. Students who want prestige may move from the US to the UK. Those who are are more cost conscious and focused on the Return on Investment of studying overseas might go to other places. For example, Hong Kong is seeing record enrolments from mainland Chinese students.
For India, affordability is very important. India is a post-grad market and people like Canada because it is cheaper than the USA. For Indian students, the UK has moved up from third place to first.
The biggest gap for Indian students between intention and actual enrolment is finance.
Any stats to support?
Duolingo reported 40% y-o-y increase for the Duolingo English Test (DET).
240,000 students in the USA are on the Optional Practice Training (OPT) which is the post study work scheme in the USA. There are murmurs about this being discontinued. Any rumours like this can seriously affect applications.
Forecasts from the experts?
There will be a post graduate decline to the USA from this Autumn, with the under graduate decline seen from September and continuing to decline further going forward. Decline is ‘inevitable’.
The enrolments to the USA from India for September are the lowest they have been in 4 years and there is not high interest for January either.
Students are applying to US universities, but 72% are also applying to one other country, and 36% to two other countries. As one expert on the webinar said, ‘No-one is completely banking on the US‘.
How will this affect the UK’s Tourism Industry?
With around 150,000 young Chinese people studying in the UK already, it seems indisputable that this figure will increase over the next year and, potentially, throughout the US Presidential term. It’s too early to put a figure on the share that might move from the USA to the UK, but there will be more data available after September when actual arrivals will be seen.
Chinese students in the UK are a phenomenal market for UK and European attractions, hotels, destinations and tour operators. They have the desire to explore and enjoy new experiences, and most have the money and the time to do so. Research shows that the average Chinese student has four times the disposable income of the average student and many have much more. University holidays are perfect times for travel and, while study commitments will always take priority, there are plenty of opportunities to promote short breaks to this affluent, intelligent and adventurous segment.
At Guanxi, we can help you with Chinese social media, student influencer trips, off line events, and connections to the key players in the Chinese travel trade, to give you access to this valuable market. Get in touch if you’d like to discuss.